2024 United States Senate election in Washington
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent four-term Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell was first elected in 2000, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Slade Gorton. In her most recent re-election campaign, Cantwell won with 58.3% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]
Primary election
Democratic candidates
Declared
- Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
- Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[3]
Republican candidates
Declared
- Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020[4]
- Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate[3]
- Isaac Holyk, software developent company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[3]
- Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
- Mel Ram, private investigator[3]
Declined
- John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (running for U.S. House)[5]
Third party and independent candidates
- Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[3]
- Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[3]
- Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[3]
- David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[3]
Endorsements
Maria Cantwell (D)
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[6]
- EMILY's List[7]
- Feminist Majority PAC[8]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[9]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[10]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[11]
- J Street PAC[12]
- League of Conservation Voters[13]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[14]
- National Women's Political Caucus[15]
- Population Connection Action Fund[16]
Raul Garcia (R)
- U.S. representatives
- Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)[17]
- Statewide officials
- Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)[18]
- Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)[18]
- Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)[18]
- Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)[18]
- State legislators
- Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)[18]
- Local officials
- Party chapters
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Maria Cantwell (D) | $10,530,088 | $4,599,180 | $6,500,800 |
| Raul Garcia (R) | $406,445 | $254,663 | $151,781 |
| Isaac Holyk (R) | $2,004 | $1,642 | $367 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[20] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Maria Cantwell (D) | Raul Garcia (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research/Crosscut | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5% | 43% | 23% | 9%[b] | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Thor Amundson | |||
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | |||
| Socialist Workers | Henry Dennison | |||
| Republican | Raul Garcia | |||
| Democratic | Paul Giesick | |||
| Republican | Goodspaceguy | |||
| Republican | Isaac Holyk | |||
| Independent | Chuck Jackson | |||
| Republican | Scott Nazarino | |||
| Republican | Mel Ram | |||
| Independent | David Tilton | |||
| Write-in | ||||
| Total votes | 100.0 | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[22] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[24] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[25] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- Maria Cantwell vs. Raul Garcia
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Maria Cantwell (D) | Raul Garcia (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[A] | March 18–21, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | February 13–14, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | November 14–15, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
- Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Maria Cantwell (D) | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | March 7–8, 2023 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 35% | 14% |
Notes
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
- ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
References
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
- ^ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
[Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Maria Cantwell (D) for Senate
- Raul Garcia (R) for Senate
